Analysis of the uncertain economic environment in Europe and the U K

Nuclear power is the largest source of low emissions electricity in the EU, but several reactors were taken offline for maintenance and safety checks in 2021. Returning these reactors to safe operations in 2022, alongside the start of commercial operations for the completed reactor in Finland, can lead to EU nuclear power generation increasing by up to 20 TWh in 2022. A concerted policy effort to fast-track further renewable capacity additions could deliver another 20 TWh over the next year. Most of this would be utility-scale wind and solar PV projects for which completion dates could be brought forward by tackling delays with permitting.

At present, only about 1% of the EU’s building stock is renovated each year. A rapid extension to an additional 0.7%, targeting the least efficient homes and non-residential buildings, would be possible through standardised upgrades, mainly via improved insulation. This would save more than 1 bcm of gas use in the space of a year and would also bring benefits for employment, though it would require parallel efforts to improve supply chains for materials and workforce development. We estimate that spending by EU member states to cushion the impact of the energy price crisis on vulnerable consumers already amounts to a commitment of around EUR 55 billion. Complementing the point above, our analysis indicates that production inside the EU and non-Russian pipeline imports could increase over the next year by up to 10 bcm from 2021. This is based on the assumptions of a higher utilisation of import capacity, a less heavy summer maintenance schedule, and production quotas/caps being revised upwards.

analysis euro uk

While we believe there is a high likelihood of recession in Europe and the UK, a recession is still not inevitable. Whether Europe and the UK ultimately land in a recession will be heavily driven by how the energy situation unfolds, but the existing macroeconomic backdrop can still play a key role in either amplifying or dampening the shocks. Given that the energy situation this winter will likely be precarious for Europe and the UK, it’s worthwhile to consider the macroeconomic impacts. While it can be difficult to quantify the probability of a recession, it’s fair to say that the situation looks somewhat bleak.

Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. Following the impressive rally witnessed last week, EURUSD has been struggling to preserve its bullish momentum at the beginning of the week. The near-term technical outlook suggests that the pair has more room on the downside to correct its overbought conditions.

Circumstances also vary widely across the EU, depending on geography and supply arrangements. Governments therefore need to step up efforts to develop and deploy workable, sustainable and cost-effective ways to manage the flexibility needs of EU power systems. EU member states need to ensure that there are adequate market price signals to support the business case for these investments. Reducing reliance on Russian gas will not be simple, requiring a concerted and sustained policy effort across multiple sectors, alongside strong international dialogue on energy markets and security.

Ultimately, we believe that central banks are likely to continue viewing inflation as public enemy number one until a recession more firmly takes hold and reopens slack in the economy. In addition, just as Milton Friedman quipped that “there’s no such thing as a free lunch,” investors also have to understand that there’s no such thing as free energy. The costs for all these support measures would have to be financed either through additional borrowing, increased taxes, or by reallocating government funds that were originally intended for other purposes.

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We see a bleak macroeconomic outlook but a strongly oversold sentiment signal, combined with valuations near the fair value range. Next, let’s turn our attention to oil, the other major energy source fueling Europe and the UK. According to the BBC, approximately 27% of European oil imports came from Russia. Meanwhile, Russia had supplied 24% of UK’s oil imports prior to the Ukraine conflict, but has stopped importing oil from Russia as of June 2022, according to the UK government. Public awareness campaigns, and other measures such as consumption feedback or corporate targets, could encourage such changes in homes and commercial buildings.

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  • However, any increase would be much lower than the overall amount of gas saved.
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  • His deep knowledge of military history provided a perspective to analyze problems and make sound policy recommendations that were valued by senior decisionmakers in the Army and elsewhere.

Considering current forward prices and the LNG supply-demand balance, we have factored into our 10-Point Plan a 20 bcm increase in the EU’s LNG imports over the next year. The timely procurement of LNG can be facilitated by enhanced dialogue with LNG exporters and other importers, increased transparency, and efficient use of capacities at LNG regasification terminals. The scale of the single currency and the size of the euro zone also bring new opportunities in the global economy. A single currency makes the euro zone a more attractive region for non-EU countries to do business with, thus promoting trade and investment.

In the future, financial market access between the EU and UK will be determined through a process known as “equivalence”, whereby Britain and Brussels assess whether each other has sufficiently stringent regulation and supervision of the sector. The UK relies on gas to heat homes and generate electricity and has western Europe’s least energy-efficient homes. The Peterson Institute for International Economics is an independent nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization lexatrade dedicated to strengthening prosperity and human welfare in the global economy through expert analysis and practical policy solutions. To signal their commitment to Ukraine, Europeans should agree a ‘long-war plan’ of assistance against Russian aggression. This would include a ‘security compact,’ security assurances, and economic and energy support. Criteria reports identify rating drivers and assumptions, and highlight the scope and limitations of our analysis.

The same consideration applies to production of low-carbon hydrogen via electrolysis, which is contingent on new electrolyser projects and new low-carbon generation coming online. Increased output of low-carbon gases is vital to meet the EU’s 2030 and 2050 emissions reduction targets. Europe’s reliance on imported natural gas from Russia has again been thrown into sharp relief by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February. In 2021, the European Union imported an average of over 380 million cubic metres per day of gas by pipeline from Russia, or around 140 billion cubic metres for the year as a whole.

A 10-Point Plan to Reduce the European Union’s Reliance on Russian Natural Gas

They often find it’s like falling into another dimension, one where employers don’t even speak the same language. Programs offered at an independent public policy research organization—the RAND Corporation. It’s time for Britain to live up to its climate promises, Alok Sharma tells POLITICO.

analysis euro uk

Compared to the liberal Pacific economies, UK post-Brexit trade holds up better, but it is no longer a leader in inward FDI and immigration growth . In the early 2000s, Britain was attracting and retaining a steady flow of foreign-born migrants. But after 2018, EU immigration tailed what works on wall street review off, and the number of EU-born residents leaving the UK each year has outnumbered new arrivals . There has not been a compensatory increase in non-EU immigration, which has reduced the size and diversity of the UK labor pool and could have implications for fiscal sustainability.

Meanwhile, UK trade as a share of GDP still trails its pre-pandemic level and is more than 6 percent below its Q level . Our people are credit experts, experienced professionals, and global citizens who collaborate in offices in over 30 countries, to help our clients and communities. Information on price developments , VAT, excise duties, and consumption of petroleum products in EU countries over time. A vast body of previously published RAND research—as well as real-time insights from RAND experts—sheds light on important issues related to Russia’s attack against Ukraine. These include Russia’s strategy and military capabilities, the Ukrainian resistance, and how to address the refugee crisis. Black veterans tend to have higher incomes and higher rates of home ownership than Black Americans who are not veterans.


Master Criteria describe the basic foundation for our ratings within a sector. Cross-Sector Criteria explain Fitch’s approach to topics that relate to multiple areas or audiences. Sector-Specific Criteria describe Fitch’s analytical approach for individual sectors, and address specific credit factors. China’s extensive foreign investments in energy infrastructure and critical minerals have raised concerns.

This means that energy consumption tends to increase when winters are colder or more protracted than usual. The amounts would depend on how the measures are designed, as well as on other factors affecting the overall profitability of the electricity companies. The average temperature for buildings’ heating across the EU at present is above 22°C. Adjusting the thermostat for buildings heating would deliver immediate annual energy savings of around 10 bcm for each degree of reduction while also bringing down energy bills. Gas import contracts with Gazprom covering more than 15 bcm per year are set to expire by the end of 2022, equating to around 12% of the company’s gas supplies to the EU in 2021. Overall, contracts with Gazprom covering close to 40 bcm per year are due to expire by the end of this decade.

In addition, the continuation of China’s zero-COVID policies throughout much of the year likely also weighed on oil consumption. With cost challenges potentially on the horizon for consumers in Europe and the UK, governments have been working on measures to alleviate the price challenges. The British government announced measures to cap the energy prices consumers and businesses in the UK would face. And the EU as a whole is also reportedly working on coordinated relief measures.

The International Energy Agency notes that approximately 40% of Europe’s natural gas consumption was imported from Russia in 2021. In contrast, the UK is less directly reliant on Russia natural gas—UK government data show that the UK imported only 4% of its gas from Russia. That being said, a disruption in Russian natural gas supplies would still likely have a significant impact on the UK, as it would push up prices paid for natural gas. Gas storage plays a key role in meeting seasonal demand swings and providing insurance against unexpected events, such as surges in demand or shortfalls in supply, that cause price spikes. The value of the security provided by gas storage is even greater at a time of geopolitical tensions. The EU could theoretically increase near-term LNG inflows by some 60 bcm, compared with the average levels in 2021.

Forecasting represents predictions of market prices and/or volume patterns utilizing varying analytical data. It is not representative of a projection of the stock market, or of any specific investment. Similar to European equities, we also believe that investors should be neither tactically overweight nor underweight UK equities.

When investors are this panicked, we believe underweighting equities is also not a good idea, as even a mild dose of good news could drive a rebound. Energy efficiency is a powerful instrument for secure clean energy transitions, but it often takes time to deliver major results. In activtrades metatrader 4 this plan, we consider how to pick up the rate of progress, focusing on measures that can make a difference quickly. A shift from gas to electricity for heating buildings could have the corresponding effect of pushing up gas demand for power generation, depending on the situation.

Maps with fuel prices in euro

“We benefit from a strong EU, that’s what we need for our economy, we’d prefer to see the UK back as a partner of some sort, but if the UK forces us to choose then we’ll choose the EU every time.” The same report estimated that investment is 13.7 per cent lower, and goods trade, is 13.6 per cent lower in the final quarter of 2021. The euro was adopted on Jan. 1, 2002, as the official currency for most of the member states of the European Union. The United Kingdom continued to use the pound and rejected use of the euro while it was an EU member state. Here, we take a look at the reasons why the country decided not to adopt the single currency while it was a member state of the EU. Investors may need more reassurance, especially given the scale of Britain’s six-month, 60 billion-pound energy support package, fund managers said.

Russia will lose the energy war Putin started

But despite the fast-evolving nature of the energy crisis, investors need not panic. In times of market volatility, staying disciplined is crucial to weathering the storm. For now, we believe investors should stick close to their strategic asset allocation. Equities are inherently risk assets, and with a recession looking increasingly likely amid the energy crisis, equity market performance could be weighed down by the bleak macroeconomic environment. In fact, European equities are already down by around 20% YTD through Oct. 5. Data from research firm CEIC show that household debt levels in the EU have risen to 51.1% of GDP, only slightly shy of the 54.6% peak seen in 2010.

Second, the euro is the key mechanism for maximising the benefits of the single market, trade policy and political cooperation. As such, it is an integral part of the economic, social and political structures of today’s European Union. Nothing changed in the national currency system when the United Kingdom left the European Union in 2020. Among the reasons why the nation decided to continue using the pound when it first joined the EU was its economic sovereignty. Its leaders wanted national businesses to be able to compete on a global scale.